The paper considers the existing approaches to forecasting development of institutions. It shows drawbacks of the existing approaches and proposes an approach to forecasting the evolution of institutions based on assessment of their impact on thelevel of transaction costs of economic agents. The possibilities of the proposed approach to explain the phenomena ofinstitutional trap are shown. On the base of transaction approach an adequate model of interaction between economicagents and institutions is developed which allows to forecasting the institution dissemination among economic agents. Alsothis model allows to forecasting emergence the institutional traps.
Forecasting the evolution of economic institutions
Yugra State University
628012, Khanty-Mansy autonomous region - Yugra, Khanty-Mansiysk, Chehova street, 16
Figure 2. The genetic model of interaction between economic agents and institutions
Figure 3. The model of interaction between economic entities and institutions
Figure 4. Logistic curve of dissemination of an institution